If The Election Were Held Today, I'd Be Very Surprised

Bruce Bartlett trots out the old line: If the election had been held six weeks ago, almost certainly they [Republicans] would have lost control of the House of Representatives and probably the Senate, as well. This reminds me of the arguments after 9/11 that, if this action or that had been taken, 9/11 wouldn't have happened. My favorite was that, if Ralph Nader had been elected, 9/11 wouldn't have happened because he had a plan to reinforce cockpit doors. Even if he did, and even if it became his top priority, it takes a spectacular leap of faith to believe that, eight months after his inaugural, four particular cockpit doors would have been reinforced, or that pre-9/11 flight crews would allow passengers and crew to be beheaded because they refused to open the doors.

But the real point is that, while we can reduce our vulnerabilities, we can't make ourselves invulnerable because the enemy is an actor, too. He will adopt to our new tactics, just as we adopt to his. If 9/11 had been made impossible, it would have taken some other form.

Similarly, if the election had been held six weeks ago, the president would have started making almost daily speeches 13 weeks ago. We would have adapted.