03 September 2008

Anyone Willing To Bet Against

there being at least one woman major party presidential nominee in 2012?


pj said...

There's at least a 50% chance there will be two.

Hey Skipper said...

If Obama loses this election, then there is the best part of a 100% chance Hillary will be the Democratic nominee.

If McCain wins, there is a very good chance he will serve only one term. If he loses, I'll bet it won't hurt Palin's future chances any.

I'm with pj. I think there is a much better chance there will be two than none.

jim hamlen said...

Hillary will have to drive the hard Left out of the party first, and I don't think she can or will do it. Plus, they will blame her for exposing Obama's weaknesses.

Presuming McCain wins, the Dems will get behind somebody like Mark Warner - remember, Kos was pushing him back in early 2007. Or perhaps Sebelius will run. Or Gavin Newsom. The Left would flock to him, and in the primaries he could be a formidable candidate.

Hillary is done, unless she can conquer the Left.

David said...

Why won't they think that Obama blew it by not choosing Hillary as VP?

And remember, the left is noisy and devoted, but numerically small. The Dems can't win just by courting the left, just like McCain can't win just by courting the right.

erp said...

Dems blew it by not having a Hillary/Obama ticket. Would have blown the Reps away. Too late now. They opted for smoke and mirrors and now they're left with the charlatan behind the curtain.

jim hamlen said...

The Left beat Hillary this time. They beat Lieberman in the primary.

Kucinich won his primary.

I just can't see anyone running against them and winning, especially in caucus states. Sure, a Mark Warner could win southern primaries (the Carolinas, VA, FL, etc.), but you have to get the buzz and the money first. And then you have to get the unions.

One wild card (presuming Obama loses) will be the black vote. Will it automatically go the leftmost sane candidate? Or will it go to Al Sharpton? What if Boxer wants to run? Or Sibelius? I just don't think Hillary is inevitable, just like she wasn't this time.

Harry Eagar said...

No opinion, but this does give me a chance to note that the first woman in the House of Commons and the first woman in the House of Representatives each has a claim to be the worst representative ever to sit in either of those august bodies.

Just sayin'.