tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32636283.post3450697030573592134..comments2023-03-26T03:50:25.501-04:00Comments on David's Secret Blog: Christmas ConundrumUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32636283.post-59514742513936235182009-01-14T19:09:00.000-05:002009-01-14T19:09:00.000-05:00The sub-prime mortgage and CDS implosion has an ev...The sub-prime mortgage and CDS implosion has an even more-basic explanation:<BR/><BR/>Past about 2005, EVERYONE working in the finance/real estate space KNEW that everyone was lying - the buyers were lying about their income, the appraisers were lying about the market value of the homes, the mortgage brokers were changing the app's to get them approvable, and the banks were approving KNOWN piles of steaming waste because they didn't expect to have to keep 'em.<BR/><BR/>But the money was too good for any major player to want to stop the cycle. Only gov't regulators would have any incentive to so do, and they'd long ago been bought or co-opted.<BR/><BR/>So here we are.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32636283.post-17061201351186624432009-01-01T17:12:00.000-05:002009-01-01T17:12:00.000-05:00Well, lot's of things are normally distributed, pa...Well, lot's of things are normally distributed, particularly in biology. More things can be normalized so that statistics that assume a normal distribution of residuals are workable. Basically, anything that varies symmetrically around a mean is normal-ish.<BR/><BR/>But not everything is and when we try to use statistics that assume normal distribution on things that are not normally distributed, the answers are gigo.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16902329503560660425noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32636283.post-18758643747117651592009-01-01T17:05:00.000-05:002009-01-01T17:05:00.000-05:00Read "The Black Swan". The normal distribution is...Read "The Black Swan". The normal distribution is a lie.Duckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08852569465893563139noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32636283.post-82745565648514171942008-12-30T17:48:00.000-05:002008-12-30T17:48:00.000-05:00So, we look up lepokurtotic and find that it is a ...So, we look up <I>lepokurtotic</I> and find that it is a fifteen-dollar word for "fat-tailed". But distributions with fat tails aren't a Christmas conundrum, they're more like a Christmas fact of life. What exactly are you puzzling over?joe shropshirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12183662262318452612noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32636283.post-84075825071831385162008-12-30T16:14:00.000-05:002008-12-30T16:14:00.000-05:00Are you sure you wouldn't rather argue about train...Are you sure you wouldn't rather argue about trains?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32636283.post-49116816869508130202008-12-30T08:21:00.000-05:002008-12-30T08:21:00.000-05:00Sounds painful.Sounds painful.Brithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00390560583798960760noreply@blogger.com